A note to the reader: I really had a hard time trying to order the contenders! But Best Supporting Actor nominees predictions are here.
First, let me say I will revise these predictions if Sacha Baron Cohen and/or Kingsley Ben-Adir are announced to be campaigned for Best Supporting Actor instead of Best Actor in a Leading Role. The men of The Trial of Chicago 7 and One Night in Miami seem to share equal screen-time, which means category placement can be a mess... but that's the fun of Oscar predictions!
The number 1 contender is Chadwick Boseman (RIP) for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. He plays Levee, the trumpeter of Ma Rainey's band who happens to be a very ambitious man and who also happens to develop an interest for Ma Rainey's girlfriend. It's a co-lead role on paper, but it has already gotten the "supporting" treatment on Broadway (Tony Award for Best Featured Actor in a Play, nom) - so, it might be the right role for Boseman's talents and if the movie is good and so is the performance, I believe the AMPAS won't ignore the last chance to honour Boseman (who left us way too soon!). Next, the Hamilton star, Tony Award winner Leslie Odom Jr., who plays Sam Cookie in Regina King's One Night in Miami. It is said to be the second best performance, right next to Kingsley Ben-Adir as Malcolm-X, and he even present us with his musical gifts. Rave reviews for his performance plus a run for Best Original Song for "Speak Now" will boost his visibility... and the fact he's a rising star in the industry might earn him a lot of "good will votes". The third sit goes to LaKeith Stanfield, who plays real-life FBI informant (and Black Panther Party activist) William O'Neal in Judas and the Black Messiah...! I know Daniel Kaluuya steals the whole show in the movie's trailer, but Stanfield promises us a relevant and major role (co-lead, I guess) as the man divided between his own interests and the cause he believes. After great turns in Short Term 12, Straight Outta Compton and Sorry to Bother You, I believe it can be the big awards break Stanfield deserves right now. Next, on-stage legend Mark Rylance, who plays William Kunstler in The Trial of the Chicago 7: it's the good lawyer part and a big couple of reviews highlight Rylance's work. It's tricky to predict any of the Chicago 7 actors, because it truly feels like an ensemble piece, but if Baron Cohen isn't campaigned here, then I believe Rylance has a better shot than his other co-stars since he already is an Academy Award winner, he's said to have one of those "Oscar clips" and the acting branch always respect a veteran stage actor who shines on-screen! The last spot goes for Bill Murray, who received rave reviews for a golden comedic turn as a playboy father in Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks. While the movie itself didn't get as much acclaim as Coppola's previous (and cooler) movies, all critics seem to agree Murray delivers one of his best performances since Lost In Translation. He's a beloved actor and Apple TV+ & A24 have few contenders to campaign this year, so I believe there will be an effort to land Murray an Oscar nomination... and I believe he will get nominated.
The other contenders... only Charles Dance and Tom Burke (both supporting players in David Fincher's Mank) remain unseen at this stage of the race. Early word says Dance benefit from more screen time and Burke has little screen time, but you never know, specially since Burke plays the iconic Orson Welles and he was so good in 2019's The Souvenir. After Odom Jr., Eli Goree seems to be the 3rd most praised of the One Night in Miami men and since he plays Cassius Clay (future Muhammad Ali) with such charisma (according to critics), maybe he has a nice shot. Yahia Abdul-Mateen II and Jeremy Strong (and Frank Langella) also got a fair share of critical praise for their works in The Trial of the Chicago 7, but I believe Baron Cohen and Rylance are Netflix's best shots at some Oscar noms in acting for their movie. No specific line in the #6 to #10 Best Supporting Actor contenders... this category really is a mess this year (yet).
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